Sat, Apr 11, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 5, Vancouver Canucks 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 310 | 05 | 03 | 528 |
| VAN | 16 | 29 | 27 | 11 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:45EDMNail YakupovAssists: Derek Roy · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 9:56EDMJordan EberleAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P1 13:10VANDaniel SedinAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 2:15VANKevin BieksaAssists: Linden Vey, Brandon McMillan · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 3:44EDMTaylor HallAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.37 xG3–2
- P2 7:47EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Martin Marincin, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 8:01VANSven BaertschiAssists: Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 19:30EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: David Musil · Wrist, 0.39 xG5–3
- P3 5:56VANJannik HansenAssists: Bo Horvat, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–4
- P3 9:53VANSven BaertschiAssists: Nick Bonino, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–5
- OT 2:29VANAlexander EdlerGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:00EDMDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26EDMAnton Lander: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:54VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:50EDMDavid Musil: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Purcell – Yakupov12:42
xG 1.18–0.50 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 2–2
- Lander – Fraser – Pitlick12:12
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Hall13:28
xG 0.86–0.72 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 3–1
- Hendricks – Klinkhammer – Gazdic6:33
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Musil9:14
xG 1.21–0.39 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Schultz – Klefbom16:48
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Aulie – Davidson6:52
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–7goals 1–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – McMillan – Horvat2:43
xG 0.72–0.04 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Dorsett – McMillan – Vey7:21
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Dorsett – Vey – Kenins4:17
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:08
xG 0.24–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev14:44
xG 1.46–0.47 (76%)attempts 21–14goals 2–2
- Stanton – Tanev2:58
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Weber – Stanton15:00
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).