Wed, Oct 7, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 5, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 215 | 111 | 218 | 544 |
| CGY | 09 | 15 | 016 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:34VANJannik HansenAssists: Ben Hutton, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:01VANBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:39CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 19:55VANDaniel SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 8:17VANAlexandre BurrowsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 16:31VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:02CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:58CGYDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:02CGYBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:02VANBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:59VANLuca Sbisa: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:34CGYDougie Hamilton: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:09VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:47CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:33CGYMatt Stajan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33VANBrandon Prust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:33CGYBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:10VANMatt Bartkowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:10CGYJosh Jooris: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Sutter12:01
xG 1.40–0.42 (77%)attempts 16–14goals 3–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat8:18
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett6:38
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – McCann9:24
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:10
xG 1.15–0.51 (69%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Sbisa – Hutton11:43
xG 0.86–0.72 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski14:27
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Jooris – Bennett6:38
xG 0.38–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bollig2:57
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan11:20
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland6:39
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Kulak13:01
xG 0.73–0.21 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Russell – Hamilton2:08
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell15:19
xG 0.62–0.93 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).