Thu, Oct 8, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 6, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 311 | 315 | 632 |
| BOS | 114 | 010 | 17 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:36BOSDavid KrejciUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:26WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:17WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:39WPGDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Adam Lowry, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 1:25BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Matt Beleskey, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 5:17WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Drew Stafford, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 9:51WPGNic PetanAssists: Andrew Copp, Mark Stuart · Deflected, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 16:22WPGAlexander BurmistrovENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.44 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:54WPGAdam Lowry: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:23WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 19:23WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:23BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Burmistrov – Lowry11:32
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers11:56
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan6:53
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:00
xG 0.38–0.69 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers14:56
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba17:18
xG 0.82–0.72 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot18:59
xG 0.76–0.74 (51%)attempts 21–20goals 2–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Bergeron – Marchand11:22
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak11:41
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Kelly – Rinaldo – Kemppainen10:24
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Spooner – Connolly11:11
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrow15:27
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug14:59
xG 0.36–0.33 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug3:56
xG 0.04–0.08 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).