Thu, Oct 8, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 1, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 07 | 08 | 125 |
| STL | 08 | 114 | 29 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:22EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 9:10STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 9:29STLRobby FabbriGWGAssists: Jori Lehtera, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:42STLTroy BrouwerENAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.58 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:52EDMMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:52STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:19EDMGriffin Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:19STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40EDMGriffin Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:21STLSteve Ott: Charging2 min
- P2 6:21STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:21EDMEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:44STLRyan Reaves: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:06EDMAnton Slepyshev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Slepyshev – McDavid7:45
xG 0.30–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Gazdic5:27
xG 0.07–0.04 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Lander – Yakupov6:02
xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Purcell – Nugent-Hopkins9:54
xG 0.22–0.76 (23%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Reinhart14:05
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Sekera – Schultz2:25
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Fayne11:26
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Schwartz – Fabbri9:04
xG 0.29–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves7:57
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Jaskin10:36
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko11:25
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:51
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:56
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Parayko11:19
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).