Thu, Oct 8, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 09 | 112 | 126 |
| NSH | 214 | 08 | 03 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 17:03NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Seth Jones · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 18:20CAREric StaalAssists: Justin Faulk · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:57CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:52CARJeff Skinner: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:53NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:39CARRiley Nash: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 11:22NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Nestrasil – Nordstrom7:08
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Versteeg – Lindholm10:35
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Terry – Nash – Skinner3:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Staal – Nash7:14
xG 0.03–0.04 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin8:03
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Liles6:57
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Liles – Hanifin2:52
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Neal – Forsberg11:55
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Bourque8:02
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith11:19
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson9:11
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi15:50
xG 0.72–0.53 (57%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Ellis – Ekholm15:05
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Jackman – Jones13:56
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).