Thu, Oct 8, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 013 | 014 | 037 |
| DAL | 14 | 111 | 19 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39DALMattias JanmarkGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Antti Niemi · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 5:42DALAles HemskyPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 12:39DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:42DALJason Demers: Interference2 min
- P2 4:57PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:01DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:38PITBeau Bennett: Holding2 min
- P3 6:15PITMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:49DALJamie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 8:41PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:32PITIan Cole: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Plotnikov8:50
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Kessel2:31
xG 0.07–0.04 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel11:20
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Farnham – Sprong4:34
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scuderi – Dumoulin13:26
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Maatta12:35
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole18:22
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Roussel – Janmark8:45
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Eaves6:35
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin12:32
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Nichushkin9:51
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg14:34
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers14:12
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Benn – Jokipakka12:26
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).