Fri, Oct 9, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 010 | 39 | 425 |
| CBJ | 09 | 114 | 110 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16NYRMats ZuccarelloUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 10:59CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 16:10CBJBrandon SaadPPAssists: Ryan Murray, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:24NYROscar LindbergAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:41NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Dan Girardi, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 18:41NYRMats ZuccarelloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:56NYRMarc Staal: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:56CBJJared Boll: Cross checking2 min
- P1 4:56CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:52CBJRene Bourque: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:26NYRJarret Stoll: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:20NYRJesper Fast: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:09NYRDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:57NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:58NYRRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Lindberg – Miller7:11
xG 0.11–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes10:00
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello10:00
xG 0.19–0.31 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Stoll – Moore – Fast8:40
xG 0.06–0.48 (11%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Yandle4:01
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh11:46
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0
- Klein – Staal5:35
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Bourque – Jenner9:43
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Bourque – Calvert2:01
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Campbell – Atkinson3:16
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Campbell – Boll – Calvert4:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Murray12:38
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Prout – Connauton11:41
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Johnson15:59
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).