Fri, Oct 9, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Chicago Blackhawks 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 110 | 010 | 13 | 335 |
| NYI | 012 | 111 | 112 | 01 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28CHIArtem AnisimovSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 5:22NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 15:11CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 1:18NYIMarek ZidlickyAssists: Brock Nelson, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:49CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.28 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:33NYICalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:59CHIArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:03NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:41CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
- OT 1:25NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Tikhonov – Teravainen6:10
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Garbutt8:59
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Bickell – Tikhonov – Shaw3:07
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:41
xG 0.52–0.65 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – van Riemsdyk15:14
xG 0.91–0.40 (70%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg12:47
xG 0.67–0.73 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson17:55
xG 0.42–1.29 (25%)attempts 10–27goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson10:37
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:11
xG 1.02–1.08 (48%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome12:56
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:11
xG 0.11–0.24 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan20:48
xG 1.19–0.47 (72%)attempts 30–14goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy13:39
xG 0.99–0.66 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Zidlicky – Strait12:23
xG 0.36–0.65 (35%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).