Sat, Oct 10, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 4, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 218 | 110 | 438 |
| BOS | 08 | 17 | 16 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:25MTLDavid DesharnaisPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 2:15MTLLars EllerAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 7:47MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Alexander Semin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 14:26BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 19:06MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
- P3 19:29BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.00 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:14BOSMatt Beleskey: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 3:13MTLTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:24BOSJoe Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:40MTLTorrey Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:28BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:23MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P3 3:30BOSRyan Spooner: Boarding5 min
- P3 3:30BOSRyan Spooner: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:25BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:16BOSColin Miller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:22MTLTorrey Mitchell: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 19:22BOSZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:46
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:38
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk7:14
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn8:28
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:53
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry13:15
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu8:23
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Marchand8:38
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak8:50
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Hayes – Spooner – Connolly6:19
xG 0.01–0.21 (5%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Kelly – Talbot – Rinaldo7:03
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Krug4:11
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Irwin – Miller2:36
xG 0.02–0.03 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Morrow2:22
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).