Sat, Oct 10, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 113 | 015 | 139 |
| FLA | 412 | 16 | 212 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:55FLANick BjugstadPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 5:46FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Brandon Pirri, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P1 6:46FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 0:33FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
- P2 3:34PHIMark StreitPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.00 xG1–5
- P3 0:41FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Brian Campbell, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P3 7:55FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brandon Pirri · Slap, 0.17 xG1–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:37PHIScott Laughton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:25PHIMichael Raffl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51PHIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:51FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:18PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:18FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18FLAConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:28FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:28PHIBrandon Manning: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:01FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:30PHILuke Schenn: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:51FLADerek MacKenzie: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:49PHIEvgeny Medvedev: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:49PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:24PHIBrandon Manning: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:46FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Read – Laughton8:03
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare5:32
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:35
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – Couturier7:46
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Medvedev11:30
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Streit – Schultz10:23
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Manning11:02
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:50
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Brickley6:14
xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Trocheck9:34
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Smith – Pirri – Bjugstad9:32
xG 0.05–0.54 (9%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic11:07
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson12:07
xG 0.40–0.52 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Campbell – Ekblad13:59
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).