Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 0, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 014 | 09 | 031 |
| NSH | 014 | 19 | 13 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:52NSHCraig SmithGWGAssists: Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 13:02NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:34NSHShea Weber: Holding2 min
- P1 8:29NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:03EDMBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25NSHJames Neal: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:44NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:02NSHMike Ribeiro: Holding2 min
- P3 13:46EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPurcell – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins11:23
xG 0.65–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Pouliot – McDavid4:25
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – McDavid4:59
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Klinkhammer6:19
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom13:13
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ference – Gryba13:58
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Sekera – Fayne10:57
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Wilson – Smith9:59
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg6:12
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Neal – Hodgson – Arvidsson4:54
xG 0.19–0.31 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Jarnkrok – Forsberg6:26
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Jones11:33
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Ellis – Ekholm13:59
xG 0.13–0.36 (27%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi16:14
xG 0.35–0.87 (28%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).