Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 112 | 113 | 232 |
| MIN | 110 | 28 | 01 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52MINCharlie CoyleUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:49STLAlexander SteenAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 15:15MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 15:36MINCharlie CoyleGWGAssists: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.40 xG1–3
- P3 4:45STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P2 4:49STLColton Parayko: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:49MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:38STLAlexander Steen: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:53STLJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:18MINThomas Vanek: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:16MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:48STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Lehtera – Schwartz6:35
xG 0.31–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Tarasenko11:38
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 1–2
- Backes – Brodziak – Jaskin4:29
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Schwartz – Fabbri3:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Parayko9:08
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:44
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Parayko4:09
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Schroeder – Coyle8:49
xG 0.60–0.06 (91%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula4:20
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:19
xG 0.40–0.57 (42%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter10:21
xG 0.10–0.38 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:20
xG 0.78–0.61 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:19
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin10:52
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).