Sat, Oct 10, 2015·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 013 | 14 | 129 |
| CHI | 111 | 211 | 112 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07CHITrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:53CHIArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 16:25CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 15:27CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 18:55NYICal ClutterbuckSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 18:27CHITrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:29CHIArtem Anisimov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:04NYICalvin de Haan: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:04NYICalvin de Haan: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 13:55NYIMarek Zidlicky: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55NYIJohn Tavares: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:55NYIJohn Tavares: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 17:38NYIMarek Zidlicky: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Nelson3:56
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:09
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Nelson2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Lee – Strome2:18
xG 0.01–0.03 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:19
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Strait9:38
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan14:07
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 18–11goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin9:19
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Hossa – Toews – Garbutt10:29
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bickell – Tikhonov – Teravainen8:08
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw8:23
xG 0.10–0.38 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – van Riemsdyk15:44
xG 0.92–0.38 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson11:43
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg12:34
xG 0.26–0.76 (26%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).