Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 112 | 010 | 333 |
| COL | 17 | 29 | 312 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Jason Demers, Antoine Roussel · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:06COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Alex Tanguay, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:21DALCody EakinAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 8:50DALCody EakinPPAssists: Jason Demers, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 14:53COLErik JohnsonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 17:51COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 8:11COLJohn MitchellGWGAssists: Jack Skille, Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 8:58COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Alex Tanguay, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 17:34COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:52DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:52COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:45COLJarome Iginla: Interference2 min
- P2 4:07DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23DALAntti Niemi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 17:06DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07DALJohn Klingberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:26COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:26COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:26DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Janmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Eakin – Seguin10:02
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Hemsky – Roussel – Janmark10:00
xG 0.25–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Nichushkin2:47
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Nichushkin3:48
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Jokipakka11:13
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Oduya – Demers14:30
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 20–16goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:31
xG 0.50–0.60 (46%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – McLeod – Skille7:09
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Rendulic – Rantanen5:39
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Duchene10:26
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:33
xG 0.54–0.65 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Holden6:56
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson16:06
xG 0.49–0.28 (64%)attempts 14–23goals 2–0
- Barrie – Zadorov10:43
xG 0.23–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).