Sat, Oct 10, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 010 | 112 | 11 | 338 |
| VAN | 09 | 211 | 08 | 02 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:03VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 11:33VANJared McCannAssists: Jannik Hansen, Brandon Prust · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 8:49CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 3:03CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:12VANMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:51CGYDennis Wideman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14CGYDennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 14:26VANDaniel Sedin: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:42VANDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:42CGYJiri Hudler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:51VANMatt Bartkowski: Interference2 min
- P3 13:52CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:56
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Raymond – Frolik – Bennett10:05
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bouma – Bollig4:08
xG 0.12–0.10 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Ferland7:52
xG 0.07–0.34 (17%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Kulak8:05
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton18:51
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell18:05
xG 0.59–0.83 (41%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Cracknell – Dorsett8:36
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Baertschi – Horvat8:46
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – McCann7:25
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter14:02
xG 0.33–0.55 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sbisa8:36
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev5:37
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Hutton5:26
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).