Sun, Oct 11, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 215 | 09 | 110 | 334 |
| OTT | 06 | 16 | 09 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 18:34MTLTomas PlekanecGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 9:09OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 5:41MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 10:09OTTAlex Chiasson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:48MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:55MTLDale Weise: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:55OTTKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:33OTTMark Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:39MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:39OTTMark Stone: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:39OTTMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:30OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:59MTLAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:16OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:16OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P3 13:07MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:38OTTMark Stone: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:02MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:19
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:50
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk8:35
xG 0.28–0.37 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:51
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban11:43
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Emelin – Petry13:28
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu10:21
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Michalek – Pageau – Lazar5:33
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Chiasson5:57
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Zibanejad7:45
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone10:41
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Wiercioch – Ceci12:16
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson12:20
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 11–18goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:25
xG 0.02–0.14 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).