Mon, Oct 12, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 0, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 07 | 014 | 031 |
| PHI | 110 | 014 | 09 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Sam Gagner, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:17PHIMichael Raffl: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:26PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:58FLAShawn Thornton: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:52PHISean Couturier: Interference2 min
- P1 19:03FLAConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:03PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:03FLAConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:03PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:03FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:53PHIRyan White: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:46PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:46FLAErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:57FLAAlexander Petrovic: Interference2 min
- P2 17:38PHIScott Laughton: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – MacKenzie – Brickley5:29
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Bjugstad7:35
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:07
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Trocheck8:17
xG 0.32–0.88 (27%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic12:04
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad10:34
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson13:54
xG 1.00–1.57 (39%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Schenn – Couturier9:34
xG 0.99–0.27 (79%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:22
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Laughton5:40
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare6:07
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Medvedev12:21
xG 1.28–0.36 (78%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Streit – Schultz11:39
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Manning11:50
xG 0.33–0.91 (26%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).