Mon, Oct 12, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 2, Anaheim Ducks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 18 | 07 | 04 | 2 | 225 |
| ANA | 09 | 19 | 09 | 02 | 1 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:56ANASami VatanenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Mike Santorelli · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 8:38VANAdam CracknellAssists: Brandon Prust, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. VAN Jared McCann stopped
- 2. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 3. VAN Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 5. VAN Alexandre Burrows scored
- 6. ANA Corey Perry stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:54VANBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54ANAClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P1 3:44ANAJiri Sekac: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:29ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- OT 2:22VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Baertschi – McCann2:10
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Burrows – Horvat4:54
xG 0.05–0.02 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – McCann6:14
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Prust – Cracknell – Dorsett5:48
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev19:12
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Hutton14:21
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski17:06
xG 0.35–1.05 (25%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Sekac16:20
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Stewart – Maroon9:17
xG 0.55–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hagelin – Silfverberg12:38
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Cogliano – Rakell11:05
xG 0.30–0.53 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Lindholm18:32
xG 0.95–0.37 (72%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Despres – Fowler17:42
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen11:34
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).