Tue, Oct 13, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 18 | 210 | 429 |
| NYR | 113 | 020 | 08 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:31WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 18:49WPGBryan LittleSHGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:35WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 17:56WPGMark StuartENAssists: Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.71 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:23NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:12NYRTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:12WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:11WPGAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P2 8:51WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:37WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:07NYRMarc Staal: Holding2 min
- P2 14:44WPGNic Petan: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:45WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:53NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:51NYRDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:57NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Burmistrov – Lowry9:01
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan3:55
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers8:50
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little9:13
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba11:09
xG 0.66–0.39 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Pardy11:40
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers12:09
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello9:54
xG 1.05–0.09 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes8:42
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Miller6:12
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Glass6:44
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – McIlrath9:20
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh11:25
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Klein – Staal12:01
xG 0.87–0.80 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).