Tue, Oct 13, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 112 | 111 | 330 |
| PIT | 04 | 215 | 014 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:31PITBeau BennettUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:45MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:09PITKris LetangAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:20MTLTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: David Desharnais, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:59PITSergei Plotnikov: Interference2 min
- P1 10:44MTLDavid Desharnais: Interference2 min
- P2 7:46PITDaniel Sprong: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:41MTLDevante Smith-Pelly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:02
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise9:12
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn10:09
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk10:44
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu12:43
xG 0.82–0.46 (64%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
- Emelin – Petry15:53
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban21:18
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Bonino – Bennett – Plotnikov8:07
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Perron12:35
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Kessel2:19
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel13:12
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Maatta16:47
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Dumoulin12:50
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole19:49
xG 0.38–1.08 (26%)attempts 14–27goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).