Tue, Oct 13, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 114 | 39 | 05 | 428 |
| CGY | 27 | 03 | 18 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CGYMason RaymondAssists: Dennis Wideman, Michael Frolik · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:46STLScottie UpshallAssists: Paul Stastny, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 17:31CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 2:49STLTroy BrouwerAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 4:47STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Jori Lehtera, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 19:28STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 1:42CGYDavid JonesAssists: Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:17STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:40STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P1 14:27STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14STLKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:20CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko13:04
xG 0.62–0.07 (89%)attempts 20–3goals 1–0
- Upshall – Backes – Jaskin7:27
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Backes – Brouwer – Jaskin2:56
xG 0.21–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves6:27
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko7:46
xG 1.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko3:34
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson9:51
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Ferland6:24
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Ferland – Bennett2:01
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma2:05
xG 0.05–0.01 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bouma – Bollig4:13
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Engelland – Kulak9:48
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Giordano – Hamilton16:03
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell17:09
xG 0.37–0.76 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).