Wed, Oct 14, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 38 | 312 | 727 |
| CBJ | 215 | 114 | 012 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16CBJBrandon SaadPPAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Snap, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 16:05OTTMarc MethotAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:58CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.36 xG1–2
- P2 1:44OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 4:34CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Cam Atkinson · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 9:32OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 17:21OTTMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.43 xG4–3
- P3 1:45OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 9:12OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Stone, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.05 xG6–3
- P3 15:55OTTBobby RyanENAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.68 xG7–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:46OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:51CBJRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:02OTTAlex Chiasson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:56CBJRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01OTTMarc Methot: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:43CBJNick Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:14OTTErik Karlsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:14CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:44OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:44CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Stone9:43
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Neil – Smith – Chiasson8:02
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Zibanejad4:06
xG 0.30–0.69 (30%)attempts 7–3goals 1–2
- Michalek – Pageau – Lazar9:51
xG 0.14–0.55 (21%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Cowen2:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen11:44
xG 0.03–0.38 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci14:04
xG 0.55–0.97 (36%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Jenner – Saad8:08
xG 0.89–0.34 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Hartnell – Foligno – Karlsson9:26
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Campbell – Bourque – Boll6:53
xG 0.19–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson10:09
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson15:16
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Prout – Connauton11:53
xG 0.85–0.43 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Savard – Murray14:50
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).