Wed, Oct 14, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Chicago Blackhawks 0, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 09 | 015 | 030 |
| PHI | 08 | 215 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:35PHISam GagnerPPGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 16:21PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Michael Raffl, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 17:25PHIMatt ReadAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.31 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:51CHITeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:02PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 14:38CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:15CHIRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:39CHIViktor Tikhonov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:12CHIArtemi Panarin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:13PHIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:16PHIChris VandeVelde: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:47PHIRyan White: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:24PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:47CHITeuvo Teravainen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Tikhonov3:19
xG 1.02–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bickell – Tikhonov – Teravainen4:42
xG 0.65–0.04 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw4:27
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Garbutt3:17
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Svedberg9:45
xG 1.21–0.33 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Daley – van Riemsdyk12:23
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson11:21
xG 0.42–1.17 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Couturier7:28
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare10:02
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:29
xG 0.38–0.46 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Gagner – Read – Laughton4:24
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Manning15:24
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz11:08
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Streit – Medvedev2:49
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).