Wed, Oct 14, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 311 | 15 | 625 |
| COL | 05 | 17 | 111 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49BOSKevan MillerAssists: Zdeno Chara, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 8:11BOSJimmy HayesAssists: Zdeno Chara, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–0
- P2 3:46BOSTyler RandellGWGAssists: Adam McQuaid · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 9:30BOSChris KellyAssists: Ryan Spooner, Jimmy Hayes · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 15:32BOSRyan SpoonerAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
- P2 18:31COLGabriel LandeskogPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 11:20COLJohn MitchellAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 18:31BOSDavid KrejciENAssists: Jimmy Hayes · Wrist, 0.74 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:31BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:10BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 4:02BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:08COLBlake Comeau: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:39COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Randell – Kemppainen5:57
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kelly – Hayes – Spooner8:52
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 2–1
- Eriksson – Bergeron – Connolly9:21
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Beleskey – Pastrnak12:07
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCross – Miller9:38
xG 0.44–0.12 (79%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug12:45
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Chara – Miller10:12
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Comeau – Duchene8:47
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Soderberg – Duchene2:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:43
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Skille7:11
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Zadorov17:12
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden11:03
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Johnson11:36
xG 0.25–0.91 (21%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).