Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Nashville Predators 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 117 | 117 | 113 | 347 |
| NYI | 07 | 213 | 28 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NSHAustin WatsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 4:22NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: James Neal · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–0
- P2 5:02NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 11:56NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 6:42NYINikolay KuleminAssists: Brock Nelson, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 11:49NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 14:36NSHJames NealAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:29NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:15NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:15NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:43NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:37NSHMike Ribeiro: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Forsberg10:56
xG 1.59–0.71 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith14:03
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Bourque – Jarnkrok10:53
xG 0.66–0.33 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Watson7:08
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm12:21
xG 2.15–0.81 (73%)attempts 20–11goals 2–2
- Jackman – Jones13:33
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi17:50
xG 0.71–0.57 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Grabovski – Kulemin – Nelson9:20
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:59
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:32
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome11:19
xG 0.86–1.13 (43%)attempts 13–17goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy15:09
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Zidlicky – Strait9:17
xG 0.54–1.10 (33%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan16:07
xG 0.92–1.54 (37%)attempts 15–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).