Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 017 | 15 | 127 |
| WSH | 19 | 17 | 28 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 3:09WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Stanislav Galiev, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 2:32WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Marcus Johansson, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 3:13CHIViktor SvedbergAssists: Artemi Panarin, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 14:18WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:31CHIViktor Tikhonov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:41WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:04CHIAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Beagle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Anisimov – Panarin5:13
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bickell – Toews – Kane4:32
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw9:02
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Bickell – Toews4:26
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson14:21
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook3:05
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Daley – van Riemsdyk15:13
xG 0.71–0.70 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov14:55
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Laich – Galiev – Stephenson8:01
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson11:49
xG 0.38–0.43 (46%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Wilson – Burakovsky2:02
xG 0.03–0.12 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson21:34
xG 1.03–0.70 (60%)attempts 23–23goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner18:47
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Chorney – Orlov10:27
xG 0.10–0.77 (12%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).