Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 011 | 07 | 025 |
| MTL | 09 | 110 | 213 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:46MTLTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: David Desharnais · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 17:55MTLDale WeiseAssists: David Desharnais, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 19:23MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:38NYRRyan McDonagh: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:09MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:36NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Embellishment2 min
- P1 9:34NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:20MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 3:18NYRDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:33MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:19NYRRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:13MTLAndrei Markov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:32MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:10NYRJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Lindberg – Hayes4:57
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Hayes4:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello5:55
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Miller4:31
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh5:29
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:58
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle11:27
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:44
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk6:56
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise8:16
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn7:31
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban13:30
xG 0.70–0.19 (78%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry11:30
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Petry – Beaulieu2:05
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).