Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 28 | 15 | 522 |
| TBL | 16 | 015 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:58DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jyrki Jokipakka, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:14DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:34DALCody EakinAssists: Mattias Janmark, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:12DALJason DemersPPGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 7:06TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 8:44TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 10:29DALJason SpezzaAssists: Ales Hemsky, Alex Goligoski · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:34DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P1 13:20TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:15DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:56TBLNikita Nesterov: Checking from behind5 min · PPG
- P2 15:56TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56DALTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:56TBLNikita Nesterov: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin11:40
xG 0.30–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Roussel7:03
xG 0.28–0.25 (52%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Eakin – Janmark10:52
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
- Moen – Fiddler – McKenzie6:10
xG 0.05–0.29 (15%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Demers15:11
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Benn – Jokipakka12:50
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:04
xG 0.44–1.01 (31%)attempts 12–29goals 2–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov9:25
xG 0.52–0.05 (90%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Brown – Paquette8:56
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin11:15
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Boyle – Condra – Namestnikov5:42
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman7:57
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Carle – Garrison11:13
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Coburn – Nesterov9:15
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).