Thu, Oct 15, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 17 | 110 | 212 | 429 |
| EDM | 110 | 07 | 19 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36EDMLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:14STLJori LehteraAssists: Troy Brouwer, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:01STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jori Lehtera · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 4:20STLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 6:37EDMTaylor HallUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 17:51STLAlexander SteenAssists: Troy Brouwer, Paul Stastny · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:37STLCarl Gunnarsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:35EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:03STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:31STLVladimir Tarasenko: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:09EDMMark Fayne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:18STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
- P3 12:13STLScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:32EDMTaylor Hall: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:56EDMMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Backes – Jaskin9:08
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Lehtera – Schwartz6:41
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:28
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves4:57
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo16:17
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 17–12goals 3–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson9:56
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko13:13
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:35
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Letestu – Gazdic – Slepyshev3:03
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Purcell – Lander8:01
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – McDavid8:31
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Klefbom15:56
xG 0.49–0.52 (48%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Sekera – Fayne10:09
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Gryba – Reinhart14:34
xG 0.14–0.65 (17%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).