Fri, Oct 16, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 315 | 38 | 634 |
| CBJ | 16 | 112 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47CBJBoone JennerAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:29TORJake GardinerAssists: Daniel Winnik, Joffrey Lupul · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:34TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:52TORNazem KadriAssists: Shawn Matthias, Brad Boyes · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:02CBJNick FolignoAssists: Scott Hartnell, Cody Goloubef · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 0:59CBJScott HartnellPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 4:00TORJoffrey LupulGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 15:51TORLeo KomarovAssists: Daniel Winnik, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 19:00TORLeo KomarovENAssists: Peter Holland, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.76 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:39TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P2 4:40CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:12TORDion Phaneuf: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:12TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:12CBJDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:25TORLeo Komarov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:32TORNick Spaling: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Spaling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Matthias – Kadri9:01
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Bozak7:40
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri4:55
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Grabner – Holland8:11
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner14:13
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 4–1
- Polak – Harrington10:29
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly14:37
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Foligno – Johansen4:42
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Jenner3:35
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Saad6:00
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Campbell – Clarkson – Calvert6:36
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Goloubef – Murray17:29
xG 0.63–0.64 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Johnson – Savard15:26
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 10–17goals 0–3
- Tyutin – Prout13:52
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).