Fri, Oct 16, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 28 | 111 | 432 |
| VAN | 09 | 19 | 216 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:36STLJori LehteraAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:52STLAlexander SteenAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 10:01STLRobert BortuzzoAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 12:38VANBrandon SutterSHAssists: Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 16:14STLKyle BrodziakGWGAssists: Troy Brouwer, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 16:44VANJared McCannAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Brandon Sutter · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:31VANDaniel SedinAssists: Ben Hutton, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:30VANAlexandre Burrows: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:43STLSteve Ott: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:11VANLuca Sbisa: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:45STLTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P2 11:12STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:12VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:28VANDaniel Sedin: Holding2 min
- P2 18:27STLVladimir Tarasenko: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:14STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:21VANMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Lehtera – Schwartz5:41
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Upshall – Backes – Jaskin5:02
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz2:09
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gomez – Ott – Brodziak3:39
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson8:10
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:56
xG 0.84–0.81 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko10:23
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Cracknell – Virtanen6:17
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen2:15
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Sutter6:16
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Dorsett – Horvat6:56
xG 0.40–0.46 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bartkowski – Hutton2:06
xG 0.03–0.02 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev10:22
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
- Sbisa – Hutton12:11
xG 0.31–0.42 (42%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).