Fri, Oct 16, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 110 | 18 | 325 |
| ANA | 015 | 09 | 011 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Alex Tanguay, Nick Holden · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:11COLJack SkilleAssists: Nick Holden, Mikhail Grigorenko · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 19:15COLJohn MitchellENAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:57COLNick Holden: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:58ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:57COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:57ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:24ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:24COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:45COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:45ANATim Jackman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07COLAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:23COLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:23COLErik Johnson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rakell won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Skille – Grigorenko5:45
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Soderberg10:48
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:19
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–21goals 1–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Rantanen9:36
xG 0.22–0.60 (26%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie14:08
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 21–27goals 2–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:29
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Guenin – Zadorov11:13
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Rakell – Sekac6:33
xG 0.40–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:11
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Hagelin2:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Hagelin – Wagner2:33
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Vatanen7:34
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler4:15
xG 0.13–0.03 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler2:23
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).