Fri, Oct 16, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 1, Los Angeles Kings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 09 | 110 | 02 | 126 |
| LAK | 016 | 116 | 04 | 11 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:13LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 5:37MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–1
- OT 2:19LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:44MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P1 10:59LAKDrew Doughty: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:24MINMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:56MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:48MINMikael Granlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:38LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:37LAKNicholas Shore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:45LAKKyle Clifford: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:57LAKJordan Nolan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Porter – Carter – Haula4:40
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:58
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter9:33
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:06
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba5:19
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin3:15
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin2:25
xG 0.01–0.11 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:53
xG 0.99–0.28 (78%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:50
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Shore – Pearson8:42
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:59
xG 0.01–0.01 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:18
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb13:26
xG 0.82–0.53 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Forbort10:22
xG 0.47–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).