Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 19 | 05 | 122 |
| MTL | 012 | 19 | 320 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:47DETDylan LarkinAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 7:44MTLBrendan GallagherPPUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 6:32MTLJeff PetryPPGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:56MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 19:59MTLBrian FlynnENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:07DETJoakim Andersson: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:42MTLAlexander Semin: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:32DETDarren Helm: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:18DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:53MTLTomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:14MTLTorrey Mitchell: Boarding2 min
- P3 5:20DETJonathan Ericsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:42DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galchenyuk won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Sheahan – Pulkkinen7:44
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Helm – Andersson4:16
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:06
xG 0.27–0.20 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Kindl6:29
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser2:44
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Green – Kindl6:07
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Eller – Galchenyuk9:58
xG 0.84–0.05 (95%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:12
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise8:32
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Eller – Weise2:29
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry13:10
xG 0.97–0.25 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu9:49
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban17:48
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).