Sat, Oct 17, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 08 | 06 | 127 |
| PIT | 28 | 09 | 016 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:28PITOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Sergei Plotnikov, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 13:09TORLeo KomarovAssists: Jake Gardiner, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:00TORJoffrey Lupul: Boarding2 min
- P1 3:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P1 15:30TORNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:57PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37PITSergei Plotnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:44TORRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:47TORPA Parenteau: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:59PITNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:58PITIan Cole: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:58TORBrad Boyes: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:45TORShawn Matthias: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spaling won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Grabner – Holland5:53
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lupul – Winnik – Spaling10:04
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri9:20
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Arcobello6:26
xG 0.06–0.49 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Rielly13:49
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner13:48
xG 0.52–0.69 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Polak – Harrington9:53
xG 0.09–0.84 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Perron9:07
xG 0.83–0.28 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel12:29
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Rust – Plotnikov4:25
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Porter – Bonino – Sprong6:51
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Cole15:31
xG 1.13–0.37 (76%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Maatta11:43
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin10:56
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).