Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 07 | 17 | 119 |
| WSH | 117 | 010 | 37 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:57WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 1:38WSHNicklas BackstromGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 7:45CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:43WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 16:11WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:14CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:51WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:56WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:18WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:30CARRyan Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:09WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P3 19:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:50CARKris Versteeg: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Gerbe – Skinner – Lindholm3:04
xG 0.05–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Staal – Staal – McGinn3:27
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Nestrasil – Rask3:05
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Versteeg – McGinn7:38
xG 0.02–0.25 (8%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Jordan16:35
xG 0.09–0.47 (17%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Murphy – Hanifin15:31
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk15:24
xG 0.11–0.85 (11%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov12:54
xG 0.83–0.10 (90%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson7:05
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Laich – Stephenson – Burakovsky7:18
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson11:58
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov12:45
xG 0.78–0.07 (92%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner17:51
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Orpik – Carlson17:02
xG 0.49–0.09 (85%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).