Sat, Oct 17, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 15 | 114 | 39 | 528 |
| CGY | 08 | 15 | 111 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Eric Gryba, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 5:07CGYDavid JonesAssists: Dennis Wideman, Micheal Ferland · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:31EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 0:25EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Matt Hendricks · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 2:59EDMNail YakupovAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 10:14CGYDavid JonesPPAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 16:20EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:06CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:06EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:53EDMAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42EDMMatt Hendricks: Interference2 min
- P2 7:52CGYMicheal Ferland: Holding2 min
- P2 11:14CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:08CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:18EDMGriffin Reinhart: Interference2 min
- P3 9:06EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:00CGYDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Yakupov – McDavid12:11
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:58
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Letestu – Klinkhammer – Gazdic3:58
xG 0.01–0.02 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Purcell – Lander8:25
xG 0.11–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne12:08
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Schultz – Klefbom13:03
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Gryba – Reinhart13:37
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Jones – Ferland4:30
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
- Raymond – Frolik – Backlund7:51
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Bollig – Granlund – Jooris4:04
xG 0.03–0.01 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Frolik – Bollig2:03
xG 0.03–0.03 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton14:09
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Engelland – Kulak7:42
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Russell – Hamilton2:20
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).