Sun, Oct 18, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Rangers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 111 | 05 | 12 | 224 |
| NYR | 19 | 08 | 08 | 02 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12NYRDerek StepanAssists: Oscar Lindberg · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:52NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- OT 3:07NJDLee StempniakGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:13NYRKevin Klein: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:13NJDKyle Palmieri: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:25NYRViktor Stalberg: Interference2 min
- P2 19:54NYRJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:19NYRKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:58NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:38NJDLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique8:59
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Palmieri2:40
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Matteau – Kalinin5:09
xG 0.03–0.13 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri9:30
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Moore2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Larsson2:01
xG 0.03–0.06 (29%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Gelinas13:22
xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kreider – Fast10:27
xG 0.69–0.43 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Stalberg8:27
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Zuccarello11:24
xG 0.27–0.32 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Miller7:04
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Girardi11:29
xG 0.78–0.25 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Yandle3:52
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).