Sun, Oct 18, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 214 | 217 | 441 |
| WPG | 012 | 211 | 06 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:27STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Jori Lehtera · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:31WPGMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 9:42STLScottie UpshallAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 12:27WPGDrew StaffordPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:50STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:53STLCarl GunnarssonPPAssists: Colton Parayko, David Backes · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:03STLJoel Edmundson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 9:26STLRobert Bortuzzo: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:26WPGAnthony Peluso: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:00STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P1 13:17WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:23STLCarl Gunnarsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:15STLScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:31STLDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:57WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:13WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13WPGDustin Byfuglien: Charging2 min
- P3 17:13STLScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:46STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Upshall – Jaskin2:17
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves7:23
xG 0.31–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko8:31
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Schwartz – Jaskin4:30
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo12:32
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson9:11
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko11:53
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:00
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers9:22
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp4:24
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry8:20
xG 0.01–0.61 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pardy – Myers8:10
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Trouba2:40
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:58
xG 0.27–0.84 (24%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).