Sun, Oct 18, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 15 | 08 | 09 | 12 | 224 |
| VAN | 113 | 010 | 010 | 01 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23EDMNail YakupovPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 15:43VANMatt BartkowskiAssists: Sven Baertschi, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- OT 1:46EDMLauri KorpikoskiGWGAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:12VANDerek Dorsett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:50VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38EDMNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Klinkhammer – Gazdic2:18
xG 0.21–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Klinkhammer – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins9:38
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Letestu – Gazdic – Slepyshev4:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Purcell – Lander10:45
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne15:03
xG 0.90–0.34 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Klefbom16:28
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Gryba – Reinhart17:48
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata2:12
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Hansen13:25
xG 0.55–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Burrows – Sutter10:23
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen6:34
xG 0.25–0.41 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev19:38
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski14:03
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Hutton14:32
xG 0.42–0.79 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).