Sun, Oct 18, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Colorado Avalanche 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 17 | 06 | 123 |
| LAK | 114 | 112 | 014 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:38LAKMarian GaborikAssists: Dustin Brown, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 15:57COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 16:20LAKTyler ToffoliGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:01LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:44COLJack Skille: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:44COLCody McLeod: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 2:44LAKAndy Andreoff: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:22COLJohn Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:25LAKTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44LAKMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P3 7:26COLMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P3 10:05LAKNicholas Shore: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:07COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:40LAKNicholas Shore: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Comeau – Soderberg9:51
xG 0.37–0.28 (56%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- McLeod – Skille – Grigorenko3:17
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:50
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Iginla – Duchene – Rantanen7:30
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Zadorov2:09
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Guenin – Zadorov10:50
xG 0.60–0.86 (41%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Stuart – Holden9:56
xG 0.03–0.42 (7%)attempts 3–15goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Shore – Pearson9:26
xG 1.01–0.05 (96%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff3:17
xG 0.54–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli10:48
xG 0.74–0.35 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:07
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:57
xG 1.89–0.02 (99%)attempts 30–5goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Forbort9:42
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb16:52
xG 0.52–0.79 (40%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).