Tue, Oct 20, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Dallas Stars 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 114 | 112 | 06 | 232 |
| PHI | 07 | 013 | 115 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:08DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:11DALJamie BennGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 8:57PHISean CouturierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read · Deflected, 0.26 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:02DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:45DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:55DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 4:55DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:55PHISam Gagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:55DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:55PHIRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:55PHIRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:38DALJohnny Oduya: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:38PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:51DALJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:52PHIMatt Read: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin12:58
xG 1.30–0.49 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Sceviour – Roussel – Faksa6:17
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Fiddler – Nichushkin10:21
xG 0.48–0.53 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Eakin – Janmark10:07
xG 0.20–0.32 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:41
xG 1.57–0.63 (71%)attempts 26–14goals 2–0
- Benn – Jokipakka12:04
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Demers14:29
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier11:22
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:16
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare7:57
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Gagner – Schenn – Laughton7:11
xG 0.03–0.37 (8%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Gudas3:14
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Manning – Medvedev2:17
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Streit – Del Zotto5:01
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).