Tue, Oct 20, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 016 | 211 | 01 | 233 |
| PIT | 116 | 012 | 15 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:00PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 3:17PITPhil KesselAssists: Rob Scuderi, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P3 11:04FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Connor Brickley, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 13:57FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Connor Brickley, Quinton Howden · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 1:21PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:07FLANick Bjugstad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:01FLAWillie Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:24PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:26PITSergei Plotnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:35FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:38
xG 0.91–0.18 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden8:02
xG 0.68–0.36 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Smith5:58
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Pirri – Bjugstad4:57
xG 0.13–0.55 (19%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:08
xG 0.68–0.37 (65%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson17:11
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic15:49
xG 0.42–1.02 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Rust – Plotnikov11:43
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel14:51
xG 1.06–0.95 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Cullen – Porter – Farnham4:58
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Perron12:39
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Maatta14:27
xG 1.19–0.53 (69%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Letang – Cole16:51
xG 0.95–0.77 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 0–2
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin17:58
xG 0.45–0.76 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).