Tue, Oct 20, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 010 | 35 | 429 |
| CBJ | 012 | 013 | 012 | 037 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58NYINikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P3 11:20NYIThomas HickeyUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 13:36NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 16:46NYIJohn TavaresENAssists: Matt Martin, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:14CBJMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:51CBJGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:51NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:56NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:03CBJScott Hartnell: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:03NYIJohnny Boychuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29NYIMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:22NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:10NYIBrock Nelson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:43NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:54NYICalvin de Haan: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:54CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:53NYIMatt Martin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kulemin – Nelson6:47
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Lee – Strome7:49
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:50
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey8:30
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Hickey9:26
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:26
xG 0.39–0.62 (38%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan14:06
xG 0.13–0.71 (15%)attempts 6–25goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Dubinsky – Calvert8:55
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 20–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Saad – Wennberg7:12
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Jenner7:36
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Bourque – Karlsson6:49
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout13:18
xG 0.82–0.33 (71%)attempts 25–6goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard13:04
xG 0.42–0.38 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Murray10:29
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).