Tue, Oct 20, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 017 | 011 | 010 | 038 |
| MTL | 111 | 113 | 112 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:27MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:52MTLAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 11:53MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: P.K. Subban, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:59MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
- P2 5:01STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:01MTLNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:13MTLTom Gilbert: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:03STLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:29STLDmitrij Jaskin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:26STLSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51MTLAlexei Emelin: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Brodziak – Jaskin3:03
xG 0.43–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Lehtera – Tarasenko12:04
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Gomez – Upshall – Jaskin5:05
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves5:35
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Edmundson9:27
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko17:12
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn11:03
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk9:26
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:48
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:13
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Markov – Subban17:33
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 17–22goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu10:39
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry18:01
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).