Tue, Oct 20, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 6, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 313 | 210 | 630 |
| CGY | 17 | 04 | 18 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:02WSHAndre BurakovskyAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 0:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 10:56WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Justin Williams, John Carlson · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 11:37WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.26 xG4–1
- P3 3:09CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Michael Frolik, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 6:53WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Jay Beagle, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 16:14WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Justin Williams, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:48WSHDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:24WSHTaylor Chorney: Holding2 min
- P2 2:57CGYBrandon Bollig: Kneeing2 min
- P2 14:37CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 19:35CGYDeryk Engelland: Charging2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov9:32
xG 1.39–0.48 (74%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
- Laich – Stephenson – Burakovsky7:28
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson12:57
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson11:44
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson14:57
xG 1.42–1.04 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 2–2
- Niskanen – Alzner16:41
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Chorney – Orlov13:46
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Gaudreau – Monahan10:06
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 2–2
- Hudler – Backlund – Ferland4:03
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Hudler – Backlund – Bennett6:38
xG 0.05–0.08 (39%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Jooris8:27
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano7:09
xG 0.47–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Wideman – Russell11:41
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Engelland – Russell2:41
xG 0.01–0.03 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).