Wed, Oct 21, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 011 | 113 | 129 |
| EDM | 111 | 211 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Nail Yakupov, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 6:34EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 7:04EDMTeddy PurcellAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Mark Fayne · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–3
- P3 6:49DETTomas TatarAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Riley Sheahan · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:53DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:36EDMEric Gryba: Interference2 min
- P1 11:14DETDrew Miller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:13EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:48EDMLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
- P2 2:56DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09EDMAnton Slepyshev: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:27EDMRob Klinkhammer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:47EDMTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Helm – Pulkkinen4:45
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Ferraro – Glendening5:47
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Tatar – Sheahan11:23
xG 0.44–0.87 (34%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Larkin10:30
xG 0.21–0.76 (21%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Kindl9:26
xG 0.39–0.29 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green3:08
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser11:49
xG 0.28–0.36 (45%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKorpikoski – Purcell – Lander8:54
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – McDavid9:37
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Miller6:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Letestu – Klinkhammer – Slepyshev4:09
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne13:57
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Ference – Gryba12:16
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Schultz – Klefbom12:11
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).