Thu, Oct 22, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Dallas Stars 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 212 | 02 | 423 |
| PIT | 011 | 19 | 014 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:55DALJohnny OduyaAssists: Jason Demers, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 15:05DALJohn KlingbergPPGWGAssists: Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 5:07DALJason SpezzaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 11:20PITNick BoninoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 13:02DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:12PITDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:21PITPatric Hornqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:52DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P3 14:05PITBen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:14DALPatrick Sharp: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:27DALVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:48DALJason Demers: Elbowing5 min
- P3 16:48DALJason Demers: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Janmark – Nichushkin8:53
xG 0.86–0.06 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin11:41
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa9:41
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Roussel – Eakin9:01
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg16:51
xG 0.87–0.47 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Jokipakka11:41
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Oduya – Demers14:22
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Malkin – Hornqvist2:03
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Crosby – Kessel4:52
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Kessel9:19
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Bonino – Perron – Rust3:35
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin14:05
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Maatta13:43
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Letang – Cole14:11
xG 0.44–0.82 (35%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).