Thu, Oct 22, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 211 | 09 | 28 | 04 | 2 | 532 |
| OTT | 114 | 114 | 29 | 02 | 1 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:02NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 5:54OTTMika ZibanejadSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 6:32NJDJordin TootooPPAssists: Adam Henrique, Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 9:25OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Neil, Shane Prince · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 2:24OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Curtis Lazar, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 6:38OTTChris NeilAssists: Shane Prince, Jared Cowen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:10NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
- P3 19:28NJDLee StempniakAssists: Damon Severson, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 2. NJD Adam Henrique stopped
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 4. NJD Jacob Josefson scored
- 5. OTT Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 6. NJD Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 7. OTT Mark Stone stopped
- 8. NJD Lee Stempniak scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:46OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 4:33OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 13:43NJDSergey Kalinin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:16NJDLee Stempniak: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:04NJDStefan Matteau: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:04OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:18NJDStephen Gionta: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P2 18:18NJDStephen Gionta: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 3:54OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:53OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:53NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:52NJDBrian O'Neill: Boarding2 min
- OT 4:47OTTMark Stone: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique12:25
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Josefson – O'Neill7:16
xG 0.25–0.25 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri9:31
xG 0.21–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Gionta – Matteau – Kalinin2:57
xG 0.13–1.11 (11%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson11:17
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson13:12
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Gelinas8:17
xG 0.24–0.75 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Ryan – Zibanejad9:45
xG 1.42–0.55 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Pageau – Lazar6:53
xG 0.41–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Prince4:58
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone9:30
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCowen – Wideman9:51
xG 1.09–0.47 (70%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Cowen – Ceci2:25
xG 0.14–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen2:48
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).