Thu, Oct 22, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 213 | 09 | 07 | 229 |
| MIN | 16 | 213 | 04 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04MINZach PariseAssists: Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 10:16CBJAlexander WennbergAssists: Scott Hartnell, Cody Goloubef · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:39CBJBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 5:41MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 11:12MINThomas VanekPPGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:52MINJustin Fontaine: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32MINThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:09CBJCody Goloubef: Holding2 min
- P2 8:09CBJCody Goloubef: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Wennberg11:17
xG 0.50–0.08 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Foligno – Johansen – Saad7:47
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Saad6:29
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Jenner7:08
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard18:02
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Goloubef – Murray15:20
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout14:10
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter9:31
xG 0.57–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 1–1
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund13:49
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula7:44
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:38
xG 0.12–0.52 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:22
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 22–20goals 2–1
- Scandella – Brodin5:42
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin7:41
xG 0.06–0.22 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).